Republican Pollster Predicts Donald Trump Loss After Debate

Republican pollster Frank Luntz has predicted that Donald Trump will lose the election after what he described as the former president’s “contemptuous” debate performance.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris took to the stage in Philadelphia on Tuesday night for their first, and perhaps only, debate in which the former president was fact-checked four times for repeating false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and promoting a conspiracy theory about migrants in Ohio abducting and eating pets.
Both candidates declared victory after the debate, but one Republican pollster thought the result was clear.
During an interview on Piers Morgan Uncensored on Wednesday, pollster Frank Luntz was asked: “Do you think Kamala won, and does that mean she may now win the election?”
“I think more accurately is that Donald Trump lost,” Luntz replied. “And this is not the worst debate performance I’ve seen in my career, but it’s very close to it. The conversations about people eating dogs and cats, calling the leader of Hungary one of the greatest world leaders, repeatedly missing the opportunity to focus on inflation and affordability, and the complete inability to present his point of view without completely tearing into her, into Joe Biden, into whomever was in his sights.”
“It was a pretty negative performance—pretty pessimistic, cynical, contemptuous,” Luntz added. “And I think that this will cost him, yes.
“I’m trying to decide if I want to go on record, and the answer is yes. I think that he loses because of this debate performance.”
“Wow,” Morgan replied.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Luntz has been critical of Trump in the past. On Sunday, he reacted to a Truth Social post from the former president by saying: “I have never seen a candidate more determined to blow an election.”
Following the debate, Harris’ chances of winning the presidential election in November improved with 20 leading bookmakers. However, some experts have warned that Trump may be under-polling as in his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. He has closed the gap on Harris for the first time in over a month, according to September polling of 1,626 U.S. adults by The Economist/YouGov.
A snap poll by CNN on Tuesday night revealed that 63 percent of viewers thought Harris won the debate, while 37 percent said the same for Trump.
Prior to the event, the same voters were evenly split on which candidate would perform more strongly, with 50 percent saying Harris would do so and 50 percent that Trump would.
The poll marks a shift from June, when voters who tuned in for the debate between Trump and Joe Biden said, 67 percent to 33 percent, that Trump outperformed his Democratic rival, according to CNN. The debate eventually led to Biden ending his reelection campaign amid concerns over his age and cognitive ability.
Trump and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney are the only cases of Republicans winning in the CNN poll since 2000.
The pollster Nate Silver said that winning the post-debate CNN poll “typically does translate into gains in post-debate polls.” He added that Harris’ performance in the debate had “reduced the chances” of Trump becoming President again.
However, it remains unclear how much impact the debate will have on the polls and the election in November.
According to Silver’s forecast, Trump has a 61 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 38 percent.
However, other pollsters like FiveThirtyEight predict that Harris will win the election with 279 electoral votes.
Silver’s forecast shows that, although Harris may lose the Electoral College, she has a 58 percent chance of winning the popular vote.